Sunday, November 25, 2007

Polling the Polling Experts: How Accurate and Useful Are Polls These Days?

When it comes to polls, not all are created equal.

The most reliable? "Surveys conducted by professional polling organizations on a periodic basis which repeatedly ask the same question -- such as, 'Do you intend to buy a car in the next three months?' -- are fully scientific and useful," says J. Michael Steele, Wharton professor of statistics. "Even though we really don't know what a person means when he says 'yes,' we can make hay out of the fact that last year, 15% said 'yes' and this year only 5% said 'yes.'" An example of a polling company that fits this profile is the Gallup organization and the Gallup Poll, considered a leading barometer of public opinion. Source: Knowledge@Wharton

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